22 Jul · 21:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GA
🇵🇱Grzegorz Adamiak
ELO 1668
FormWLWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Kuzmicz
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kuzmicz
ELO 1748
FormLWWWW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Kuzmicz
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~76 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+80
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+80)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)