22 Jul · 20:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1534
FormWWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Fomin
AF
🇵🇱Andriej Fomin
ELO 1589
FormWLWLW
44%
56%
🌟Fomin goes over total as favourite 63% (54)
Fair odds · Fomin
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 75% · 1.34· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+55
H2H22-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (22-2)