22 Jul · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇵🇱Adam Staniczek
ELO 1451
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Michalik
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1474
FormWWWLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Michalik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+23
H2H41-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.