22 Jul · 20:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kuzmicz
ELO 1748
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kuzmicz
MR
🇵🇱Mateusz Rutkowski
ELO 1736
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rutkowski🌟Rutkowski covers set handicap as underdog 67% (108)
Fair odds · Kuzmicz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H33-40
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.