22 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1533
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Oracz
MO
🇵🇱Michal Oracz
ELO 1542
FormLWLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.