22 Jul · 17:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1358
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kowalczyk
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1339
FormWWLWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lukaszewski🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (25)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 57% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H27-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.