22 Jul · 16:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MO
🇵🇱Michal Oracz
ELO 1542
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Oracz
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1519
FormLLWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 42% · 2.41· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+23
H2H7-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.