22 Jul · 17:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SW
🇵🇱Stanislaw Wnek
ELO 1396
FormLLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Wnek
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1371
FormLLWLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fabis🌟Wnek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (45)
Fair odds · Wnek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H65-62
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.