22 Jul · 19:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1533
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Smolka
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1522
FormWLLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Smolka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.39· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H28-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.