22 Jul · 18:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1371
FormLLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Fabis
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1307
FormLLLWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+64
H2H43-36
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (43-36)