22 Jul · 19:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1374
FormWWLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kowalczyk
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1307
FormLLLWW
57%
43%
🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (25)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 33% · 3.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+67
H2H7-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (7-6)