22 Jul · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1370
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Wnek
SW
🇵🇱Stanislaw Wnek
ELO 1398
FormLWWLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kowalczyk🌟Wnek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (45)
Fair odds · Wnek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+28
H2H72-78
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.