22 Jul · 20:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1324
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Fabis
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1356
FormLLLLW
46%
54%
🌟Piecowski covers set handicap as underdog 89% (18)
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 57% · 1.75· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.