23 Jul · 06:25 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1436
FormLLLWL
60%Win chancemodel fair 1.67Urban
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1347
FormWLWLW
60%
40%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kaczmarek🌟Kaczmarek covers set handicap as underdog 69% (26)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 60% · 1.67vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~79 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+89
H2H16-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+89)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-10)