23 Jul · 05:35 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1347
FormWLWLW
74%Win chancemodel fair 1.35Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1589
FormLWWLW
26%
74%
🌟Kaczmarek covers set handicap as underdog 69% (26)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 74% · 1.35vsMarket 79% · 1.26· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 59%Total ~75 pts
0-3
32%
1-3
27%
2-3
15%
3-2
11%
3-1
10%
Elo Gap+242
H2H52-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+242)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (52-18)