23 Jul · 04:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1682
FormWWWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Tkaczyk
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1599
FormWWLLW
59%
41%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 71% (41)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 60% · 1.67· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+83
H2H41-36
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+83)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (41-36)