23 Jul · 08:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1400
FormLWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Dabrowski
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1397
FormWLLLL
50%
50%
🌟Sulkowski goes over total as underdog 75% (20)
Fair odds · Dabrowski
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H9-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.