23 Jul · 09:15 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1442
FormLLLWL
61%Win chancemodel fair 1.64Spychala
AS
🇵🇱Adrian Spychala
ELO 1539
FormLWWLL
39%
61%
🌟Spychala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 17% (18)
Fair odds · Spychala
Model 61% · 1.64vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 46%Total ~77 pts
1-3
24%
0-3
22%
3-1
15%
2-3
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+97
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+97)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)