23 Jul · 10:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1451
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lilien
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1438
FormWWLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+13
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.