23 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AS
🇵🇱Adrian Spychala
ELO 1529
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zochniak
JZ
🇵🇱Jakub Zochniak
ELO 1536
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
🌟Zochniak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (25)
Fair odds · Zochniak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.22· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.