23 Jul · 11:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1539
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Minda
AS
🇵🇱Adrian Spychala
ELO 1514
FormLLLWW
53%
47%
🌟Spychala goes over total as underdog 66% (82)
Fair odds · Minda
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.