23 Jul · 13:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JZ
🇵🇱Jakub Zochniak
ELO 1556
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zochniak
AS
🇵🇱Adrian Spychala
ELO 1548
FormWWWLL
51%
49%
🌟Zochniak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (25)
Fair odds · Zochniak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H1-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.