23 Jul · 14:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1371
FormLLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Dabrowski
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1415
FormWWLLW
45%
55%
🌟Sulkowski covers set handicap as underdog 67% (18)
Fair odds · Dabrowski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+44
H2H24-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+44)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-16)