23 Jul · 16:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MO
🇵🇱Michal Olbrycht
ELO 1549
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Spychala
AS
🇵🇱Adrian Spychala
ELO 1555
FormWWWWL
49%
51%
🌟Spychala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 17% (18)
Fair odds · Spychala
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.