23 Jul · 18:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1486
FormLWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Oracz
MO
🇵🇱Michal Oracz
ELO 1532
FormLLWWW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+46
H2H4-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+46)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-1)