23 Jul · 19:10 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1445
FormLWWWW
61%Win chancemodel fair 1.64Urban
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1342
FormLLLWW
61%
39%
🔥 Underdog lean · Nowak🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 69% (13)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 61% · 1.64vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 46%Total ~79 pts
3-1
24%
3-0
22%
1-3
15%
3-2
15%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+103
H2H34-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+103)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (34-17)