23 Jul · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1389
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Wnek
SW
🇵🇱Stanislaw Wnek
ELO 1408
FormWLWWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kowalczyk🌟Wnek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (45)
Fair odds · Wnek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 43% · 2.31· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H73-78
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.