23 Jul · 21:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1318
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Piecowski
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1326
FormWLLLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rolak🌟Rolak covers set handicap as underdog 82% (28)
Fair odds · Piecowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.