23 Jul · 22:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PK
🇵🇱Piotr Kaczynski
ELO 1565
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kaczynski
WP
🇵🇱Wojciech Pytlas
ELO 1536
FormLWWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Kaczynski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 31% · 3.22· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H13-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.