23 Jul · 23:05 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1483
FormLLWLL
61%Win chancemodel fair 1.64Nocun
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1586
FormWLLWL
39%
61%
🌟Nocun stays under total as favourite 71% (34)
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 61% · 1.64vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 46%Total ~75 pts
1-3
24%
0-3
22%
3-1
15%
2-3
15%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+103
H2H40-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+103)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (40-10)