23 Jul · 23:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1324
FormWLLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Rolak
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1320
FormLWLLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Piecowski🌟Piecowski covers set handicap as underdog 89% (18)
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.