23 Jul · 23:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1579
FormLWWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Tkocz
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1638
FormWLLLW
43%
57%
🌟Lebek stays under total as underdog 67% (15)
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+59
H2H40-49
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)