24 Jul · 00:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1567
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1579
FormLWWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H16-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.