24 Jul · 01:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1332
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Rolak
MP
🇵🇱Milosz Piecowski
ELO 1314
FormWLLLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Piecowski🌟Piecowski covers set handicap as underdog 89% (18)
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H4-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.