24 Jul · 05:05 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1498
FormWWWLL
60%Win chancemodel fair 1.67Nocun
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1586
FormWLWWL
40%
60%
🌟Nocun stays under total as favourite 71% (34)
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 60% · 1.67vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~76 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+88
H2H41-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+88)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (41-10)