24 Jul · 05:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1369
FormWWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sulkowski
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1394
FormWLWLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H13-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.