24 Jul · 05:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1440
FormWWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Warpas
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1394
FormWLWLL
55%
45%
🌟Sulkowski goes over total as underdog 75% (20)
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~74 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+46
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+46)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)