24 Jul · 05:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1551
FormLLLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Tkocz
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1635
FormLWWWL
41%
59%
🌟Lebek stays under total as underdog 67% (15)
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~74 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+84
H2H40-50
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+84)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)