24 Jul · 06:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1440
FormWWLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Warpas
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1369
FormWWWLL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+71
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)