24 Jul · 06:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1339
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mugowski
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1369
FormWWWLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Mugowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+30
H2H26-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.