24 Jul · 08:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1429
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Warpas
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1395
FormLWWWL
54%
46%
🌟Sulkowski goes over total as underdog 75% (20)
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+34
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.