24 Jul · 08:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JG
🇵🇱Jakub Glanowski
ELO 1517
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kosmal
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kosmal
ELO 1527
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
🌟Glanowski goes over total as underdog 69% (42)
Fair odds · Kosmal
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 48% · 2.08· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H9-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.