24 Jul · 07:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1362
FormWLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sulkowski
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1395
FormLWWWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H14-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.