24 Jul · 08:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1584
FormWWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Tkocz
MT
🇵🇱Marek Tkocz
ELO 1642
FormWLWWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Tkocz
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+58
H2H12-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-8)