24 Jul · 09:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kosmal
ELO 1533
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kosmal
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1498
FormLLWWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Kosmal
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+35
H2H9-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.