24 Jul · 11:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1373
FormWLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Warpas
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1432
FormLWWLL
43%
57%
🌟Sulkowski covers set handicap as underdog 67% (18)
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+59
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)