24 Jul · 09:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RN
🇵🇱Rafal Niemiec
ELO 1539
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Niemiec
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jadach
ELO 1520
FormWLWLL
52%
48%
🌟Niemiec goes over total as favourite 78% (23)
Fair odds · Niemiec
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.