24 Jul · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1490
FormWLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jadach
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jadach
ELO 1528
FormWWLWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Jadach
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+38
H2H15-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.