24 Jul · 23:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1481
FormWLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Schaniel
PP
🇵🇱Piotr Przewlocki
ELO 1426
FormLLLWL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Przewlocki🌟Przewlocki goes over total as underdog 74% (38)
Fair odds · Schaniel
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~80 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+55
H2H18-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+55)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-5)