24 Jul · 15:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RN
🇵🇱Rafal Niemiec
ELO 1519
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jadach
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jadach
ELO 1553
FormLWWWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Jadach
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 29% · 3.47· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+34
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.